Manpower projection for specialty subs

Specialty subs lose money on two ends of the staffing problem: over-staffed weeks where you're paying foremen to coordinate work that isn't there, and under-staffed weeks where you accept liquidated damages or burn weekend overtime. A manpower projection — done weekly, looking 6 to 12 weeks ahead — catches both before they bite.

Here's the framework most subs we've talked to converge on.

The variables you're solving for

Project the future state of three things per week:

1. Headcount needed by project, by week (a function of the work plan)
2. Headcount available by week (a function of your active roster, PTO, training, OFF status)
3. Gap — positive (you're short) or negative (you have bench)

Most subs we've seen get item 1 right (work plans are visible to them) and item 2 wrong (PTO, training, and rolling-off employees aren't tracked rigorously). The gap is then garbage in, garbage out.

The math

For each week, for each project:

Gap > 0 means you're short that many people that week. Gap < 0 means you have bench. Either is information; only ignored gaps cost you money.

The gap chart

A gap chart is the single visual that makes everyone in the office agree on what's happening. Weeks on the x-axis. Net gap (one number) on the y-axis. Red bars below zero (short), green bars above zero (bench).

What it tells you at a glance:

• Week 6: -4 people = you need to hire or pull from another project
• Week 9: +3 people = you have spare capacity to take on a small job
• Weeks 11-14: zero gap = you're balanced

The chart is most useful when it's live — updated as PTO is requested, as new projects are added, as roster changes. A static monthly version is already wrong by Wednesday.

Where it tends to break in spreadsheets

1. PTO lives in a different system

PTO is in your payroll system, your bench planning is in Excel, your roster is somewhere else. By the time you reconcile them weekly, the gap chart is built on three-day-old data.

2. The 4-tier sub assignment problem

An employee can be Tier 1 (concrete foreman), Tier 2 (concrete finisher), Tier 3 (formwork), Tier 4 (helper). They can fill multiple roles, but they can only do one at a time. Spreadsheets don't handle this without complex formulas; tools built for crew planning do.

3. "Soft" projects pollute the projection

Jobs in pending or proposed status get added to the work plan and inflate the needed headcount. By week 6 you've over-hired because three of those jobs never came through. Track project confidence as a first-class field.

4. The day-mode question

"Week-grained" projections hide intra-week imbalances. Concrete crews work 10s, take a half-day Wednesday, or compress Friday. Day-grained projections catch the pour-week dynamics that weekly views smooth over.

Warning signs you're going to be short

Without doing math: when these three are simultaneously true, hire now.

• You've turned down or quoted high on two pours in the last 30 days because of crew capacity
• Your top 3 active projects are all in their middle 50% (peak labor demand)
• You've worked any weekend in the last 30 days

The tool we built

Manpower Tracker (part of Planning Ops) is a crew-week grid plus a capacity-vs-demand Projection and analytics for specialty subs. It handles:

• Crew weeks by foreman and package
• Day Mode — the day-grained view for pour weeks
• Projection — a capacity-vs-demand Gantt. Add a projection (name, start/end week, optional foreman and required skill), break it into sub-rows per building, and drag to label phases.
• PTO-adjusted gap strip — tints each week Short or Tight off your roster and the PTO entered on it, so the gap math updates as PTO is requested
• Skill gaps and foreman conflicts — flags when a week needs N of a skill but only M are available, and when the same foreman overlaps two projects (Acknowledge to clear)
• Analytics by foreman, project, and utilization, with Excel export
• CSV roster import — get from your spreadsheet to the tool in 10 minutes
• 4-tier role model — admin / editor / coordinator / viewer so the foreman edits roster but not pricing

Walk through it in the Manpower Tracker getting-started guide.